Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
09 Dec 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1 m (09 Dec 15:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      139 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 59000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 167 1.2 million 90 thousand Madagascar
        Green 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 176 1.2 million 20 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Red 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 204 3 million 260 thousand Madagascar
        Orange 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 120 1.5 million 120 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 185 1.7 million 70 thousand Madagascar
        Green 9 08 Dec 2019 18:00 167 290 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 10 09 Dec 2019 06:00 148 730 thousand 40 thousand Madagascar
        Green 11 09 Dec 2019 18:00 139 1.2 million 60 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.9, 48.7
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people <1000 people -9.2, 48.4
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.6, 47.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 7 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people <1000 people -10.9, 47.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -12, 46.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 9 08 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -12.9, 46.3
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 148 18000 people 140000 people -14.6, 45.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 49000 people 350000 people -16.5, 44.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 220000 people -18.4, 44.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 350000 people -19.7, 44.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 200000 people -21, 44.8 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 11 11 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22, 46 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Baly, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 15:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (166 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 09 Dec 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Baly Madagascar  1.0
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.9
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.8
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.6
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.5
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 18:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 14:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.3
          11 Dec 2019 01:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Dec 2019 01:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 11:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.3
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 02:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Beira Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 03:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 09:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Tama Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 08:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 04:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 03:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 05:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 07:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 19:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
          11 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1